Why Bitcoin is NOT a scam / lottery / bubble / Tulip mania / whatever
So, another thread has hit /all and brought another influx of people new to Bitcoin. I usually don't pay much attention to all negative comments, but since I have some extra time today and nothing better to do... I wanted to address the main thing that often pops up in these threads. Namely: is Bitcoin a scam? First of all, if you asked me this question in few years back (2015 when price crashed back to $200)... I would've said: maybe. At that point jury was still out - I often like to quote Satoshi's genius observation:
In twenty years, Bitcoin will either be worth quite a lot or nothing
With marketcap below $4B Bitcoin was still an easy target. We all remember MtGox scandal, government dumping Bitcoin seized from Silk Road for $48m (boy... did they dropped the ball with that one ;), discussions in Senate etc. etc. Meaning - at that point - it was still possible for rogue actor to pump and dump and break the whole system beyond repair. But, it is end of 2017 now... and Bitcoin is worth over $7000 (boy, will it be fun when it's over 9000 ;). All this results in Bitcoin ecosystem being way more powerful now than few years back. Not only there is daily trading volume of over $3 BILLION going through Bitcoin... There are now Bitcoin companies that are worth over $1B. Hell, there are people who are Bitcoin billionaires. Which brings us to the main point:
Bitcoin is genuine technological revolution, accompanied by tangible merits. In a nutshell, Bitcoin is a scam in 2010s as much as Internet was a scam in 1990s.
1 Bitcoin is valuable because you can do "technologically new" things with it. Never before in the history of humanity we had TRULY DECENTRALIZED "asset" that had properties traditionally associated with currencies (previously always backed by someone / government) or commodities (like gold).
Bitcoin is a store of value. You can easily hold it with your private key and NOBODY can take it away from you. Compare that to having $1 in the bank - government can block it. If you have $1 and you hold it in cash, government can still take parts of it from you through inflation (dollar has lost 99% of it's value from 1950s). Also, compare Bitcoin to gold - it's MUCH easier to store. And much easier to turn into medium of exchange.
Bitcoin is medium of exchange. You can buy stuff directly in Bitcoin. Numerous websites and people around the globe now accept it. You can easily transfer it. Wherever you are in the world, you can instantly send Bitcoin to other people. This is not a big deal for people in first world countries as they have numerous options. But for majority of the world this is a HUGE deal. More than 50% of population is without bank account (let along online bank account) and have no way to participate in global economy.
Bitcoin is unit of account. If you have Bitcoin you can exchange it for whatever currency you want. In a sense Bitcoin is MORE VALUABLE than native currencies of MANY countries. If you are in Venezuela right now, would you rather hold Bolivar or Bitcoin? It's kinda no-brainer, right?
I hope this overview gave you good insight into why it's pretty much impossible for Bitcoin to be scam at this point. Like, I understand that recent HUGE price jump can influence people to see Bitcoin as Tulip mania. But Tulip mania was a scam because nothing substantial changed with tulips over night. People just started paying more and more for them. Plus, you could always produce more Tulips. With Bitcoin you have genuine technological revolution behind. If you own Bitcoin you can do stuff you never could do before in various parts of the world. It's like banking infrastructure on steroids really. Plus, unlike Tulips, Bitcoin supply is limited. Hell, even gold - you can always mine more of it. Bitcoin is fixed at 21 million, for all eternity. Any question - fell free to hit me up. Always glad to help newcomers to Bitcoin! EDIT: One of the responses says - OK, we can agree Bitcoin is obviously not a scam. But, is it a bubble? Consider that Bitcoin has been a bubble for last 8 years. It was bubble when it was $2. It was bubble when it was $30. I thought it was bubble when it broke $2000. Hell, to me stock market is in the bubble. I like to compare Bitcoin to Internet... lots of people thought "Internet is a bubble"... yet 20 years later, here it is... completely changing humanity. In that sense I think Internet is best comparison to Bitcoin... time will tell whether or not Bitcoin is right now in the bubble... but I strongly believe that in 20 years Bitcoin will be above today's levels. Now, if you share my long term prospects - then "Bitcoin bubble" will never be too much of an issue for you. Like - I don't buy in batches... I dollar cost average my BTC investment (you can look through my history for more info). See also Max_Thundernice observation of using Bitcoin as vehicle for protection against inflation... EDIT: I've incorrectly presented amount of money pumped into Bitcoin... read this for explanation. EDIT: I also want to emphasize one thing:
DO NOT go ALL IN hoping that Bitcoin will hit whatever mark. Especially DO NOT BORROW MONEY and GO ALL IN unless you are ready to forget about whatever money you've invested for next 20 years.
95% of people I know that have been trading Bitcoin have LOST most of their money. I know bunch of people who bought at $20 and then sold at $2. Then there is a group that bought at $800 and sold at $200. There are also those on other side of equation... there was short worth tens of millions of $$$ earlier this year when BTC was breaking $1100. Crazy thing - Bitcoin price did drop few days later... but that was AFTER short was wiped out and whoever did it lost TENS OF MILLIONS of $$$. Profiting is not only about being right about eventual price... it's also about knowing when it'll happen. Final EDIT: Blow away by all the feedback. That's why I like to post here - I get interact with people and in the process learn something new. I'll be monitoring my Inbox so if you have more questions just drop them here. And if you like my writing, visit my motivational / various blog that I update occasionally.
Why Bitcoin and Tulip Mania are two vastly different, and entirely unrelated, phenomena: a comprehensive analysis
I keep seeing all these comparisons of Bitcoin to tulip mania, such as in this extremely inaccurate chart Convoy investments recently published. It’s a bunch of bullshit. Bitcoin is about as far from 17th century tulip bulbs as you can get so I’m gonna debunk this claim right now. Here are the facts —
This chart only goes back to 3 years before the “bubble peak.” If they’re talking about now being the peak, it would start at 2014. Bitcoin was founded in 2009 & experienced its first “bubble” if you will, in 2013.
Bubbles do not typically burst and then come back. Tulip bulb prices crashed once and it was over. That’s why this chart conveniently left out the pre-2014 era.
This chart puts the value of bitcoin in 2014, using its Y axis label “multiple of starting price” at next to 0. Bitcoin started at less than a dollar. Its value in 2014 was in the hundreds of dollars.
It is not known exactly how long tulip mania lasted as there is no data available from February of 1637 to the beginning of may. Low estimates for its duration fall around 3 months. At the highest estimate, it may have lasted 6 months (Source) Convoy’s chart incorrectly depicts the tulip boom as almost a full year long.
Bitcoin on the other hand, has been around for 8 years. In Jan 2018 it’ll be 9. Let’s disregard this for a sec, lets play devils advocate and look only at bitcoin’s latest increase which began around March 2017 (Source) It consistently began hitting ATHs back in March of this year, and gained even more traction later on from June-July. So, disregarding everything else Bitcoin’s current meteoric rise has already lasted approx 9 months, which is longer than the rise, peak and collapse of tulip bulbs altogether. Let me point out here that Convoy got the dates for tulip mania wrong as well! it lasted from late 1636- early 1637, not 1619-1622.
Tulips are not scarce. People can plant tulips and collect bulbs all they want. Bitcoin is inherently scarce. 21 million bitcoins - and only 21 million - can ever be made. That’s it.
Tulips are irrelevant. Investors invested in them regardless of what they were, to make a quick buck. They could have been daisies or pigeons or lumps of rock. This brings us to:
Tulip prices were doomed to crash from the start because they had no intrinsic value. Investments were made in them ONLY because investors thought the price was going to go up, and that was it. Bitcoin, on the other hand, has intrinsic value as a currency and as a technology. People think the price will go up, yes; this part can be labeled speculative and it does add fuel to the spaceship. However, the difference is that there are real solid reasons for its price increase.
An asset price cannot increase forever based on speculation alone, but if the asset has inherent value, then its price sure can continue to increase. If we look at the Apple stock chart from 1980 to 2012, we can see a pattern that’s actually quite similar to Bitcoin’s rise. Was Apple a bubble? Did it burst? No and no. But Michael Dell once made fun of Apple for “trying to be a company”. And nobody knows who Michael Dell is anymore. Bitcoin is not Tulip Mania. That is all. Edit: thanks joecoin for linking me to a compelling article from Smithsonian Mag. This source makes a very convincing argument that tulip mania never actually happened. I figured I should point this out, because the facts are all important to me. That being said, the concept of tulip mania remains, and there are people who try likening it to bitcoin as if the two are any more similar than apples and oranges. Those people are wrong. :)
Bitcoin’s critics say the digital tokens are like the tulip bulbs of 17th-century Holland. They generated a wild, speculative rush that quickly disappeared, leaving behind nothing but pretty ... Tulip Mania Take a journey into the weird and wonderful world of Bitcoin. Listen as your hosts Josh and Mike explore the events, the drama, the players, the markets, and everything in between, to really understand how this little technology is set to change the world. The report compared Bitcoin’s run to the Tulip mania of the 1600s in the Netherlands, one of the most infamous instances of speculative bubbles. One by one, Goldman laid out rebuttals against ... Why Bitcoin is Much Bigger Than Tulip Mania 🌷 June 9, 2020 Paxful Team 0. In the earlier stages of bitcoin’s lifespan, especially during its all-time high in late 2017, many financial analysts accused BTC of being a “bubble.” Just like the bubbles you blow with a wand in your backyard, financial “bubbles” are assets that grow rapidly in value and then disappear in the blink of an ... Related: What is bitcoin? Tulip mania . In the early 17th century, speculation helped drive the value of tulip bulbs in the Netherlands to previously unheard of prices. Newly imported from Turkey ...
Bitcoin and Tulip Mania, The New World Reserve Currency.
Have you heard of the tulip bubble? Help poke fun at how people compare bitcoin to tulips by getting your own “Bitcoin Tulip”. SUBSCRIBE ! for videos on finance, making money, how to invest and creative ways to acquire passive income ! After 10+ years of investing and saving, I'm here to pass the knowledge onto you ... As Bitcoin skyrockets past $16,000, I'm issuing a new Bitcoin warning video (see below). Bitcoin speculation has now clearly reached the level of a "digital ... CORRECTION: I say India in the video, I mean Turks/ Ottoman empire. The Bitcoin Bubble VS Tulip Mania. Which one is worse? Are we going to recover with the crypto market or are we going down from ... This video is unavailable. Watch Queue Queue. Watch Queue Queue Queue